Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan?

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TeriA
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2017/08/31 22:26:12 (permalink)
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Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan?

I'm watching with extreme interest this new system, Hurricane Irma.  She is now a Cat 3 which was a leap from last night when she wasn't even a hurricane yet.  Current models put it traveling anywhere from smack dab across the Yucatan to sliding up along Cuba and then to Florida, to just heading out into the Atlantic.  It's too early to tell just yet.  Sunday or Monday will bring more clarity to what we can expect.  Those of us that will be in the RM when it is expected to pass that latitude will need to think about preparing to be evacuated inland should she remain a hurricane, which she will, and worse, if she remains at a Cat 3 or intensifies, which she is projected to do.  Irma is likely going to be a Cat 5 before she makes it to the US.  
 
It's a horrible thing to consider she might just end up in the Gulf and hit the same areas that Harvey did, yet she will be much worse than Harvey in damaging winds alone.  
 
I'm packing what I would want to have with me if we are impacted even with a tropical system while traveling. Things like rain ponchos, candles and matches, a flashlight or two, closed toe shoes and socks, granola bars, that kind of thing. 
 
So, if you are going to be in the RM next week, be prepared.  
 
Personally I think Irma is going to slide up the east side of Cuba, but, this storm season has been a little weird.  Really wishin Solman was weighing in.  




#1

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    SolMan
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 09:36:45 (permalink)
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    Hi Teri,
     
    I've been watching this one closely. The global models are in somewhat of a disagreement. The GFS model wants to strengthen the mid-Atlantic ridge, which would result in Irma pushing west-southwest toward the Leeward islands and into the Caribbean, south of Hispaniola and more toward the Yucatan.
     
    The European model wants to weaken the mid-Atlantic ridge, resulting in a turn to the west-northwest toward the Greater Antilles, and possibly toward the Bahamas and Florida or the Eastern Seaboard.  
     
    It really is a waiting game right now, but it seems the National Hurricane Center has gone with a more northwesterly track, meaning they believe that the mid-Atlantic ridge is going to weaken a bit, creating a "mountain pass" so to speak so that Irma can turn more to the northwest. Remember the "leaf in a stream" analogy from a few years back?
     
    In any case, we've already begun working our prep checklist, just in case, and talking through whether or not we'd ride out a cat 4 or 5 here vs. evacuating north, south or west should it come to that.  
     
    When do you arrive?


    #2
    crunch
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 12:16:35 (permalink)
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    Go to Merida!

     



     

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    #3
    SolMan
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 12:21:48 (permalink)
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    crunch
    Go to Merida!


    If it comes to that, that's exactly where we'll go!


    #4
    durangotom
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 15:01:23 (permalink)
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    Thanks Sol Man, I will be watching this close...Two and a half years since I've been back and we are scheduled to arrive on Thursday the 7th! 
    Yikes
     
     
     
    #5
    bouldergal
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 19:37:16 (permalink)
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    Hi Sol Man, I was hoping you'd post!! I'm concerned as I am in Holbox from Sept 6th through the 9th and then on to ABBWR on Sept 10th.  Aye yi yi!  I'll look forward to your posts in the coming days as more information becomes available.  Please keep us all in the loop here on the forum.  Much appreciated.
    #6
    TeriA
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/01 21:40:43 (permalink)
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    SolMan
    Hi Teri,
     
    I've been watching this one closely. The global models are in somewhat of a disagreement. The GFS model wants to strengthen the mid-Atlantic ridge, which would result in Irma pushing west-southwest toward the Leeward islands and into the Caribbean, south of Hispaniola and more toward the Yucatan.
     
    The European model wants to weaken the mid-Atlantic ridge, resulting in a turn to the west-northwest toward the Greater Antilles, and possibly toward the Bahamas and Florida or the Eastern Seaboard.  
     
    It really is a waiting game right now, but it seems the National Hurricane Center has gone with a more northwesterly track, meaning they believe that the mid-Atlantic ridge is going to weaken a bit, creating a "mountain pass" so to speak so that Irma can turn more to the northwest. Remember the "leaf in a stream" analogy from a few years back?
     
    In any case, we've already begun working our prep checklist, just in case, and talking through whether or not we'd ride out a cat 4 or 5 here vs. evacuating north, south or west should it come to that.  
     
    When do you arrive?


    Hey Solman!!!  So glad you are still on LG. It's hard to know who's here and who checks in anymore.  
     
    We get to ABBWR Tuesday afternoon the 5th.  I'm really hoping the European model is spot on.  If we do have to evac, I'm hoping for Merida, too.  




    #7
    SolMan
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/02 16:18:01 (permalink)
    +1 (1)
    Looking like it will swing north of Hispaniola and Cuba. Wouldn't want to be living in the Bahamas right now...


    #8
    Kay
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/04 13:49:43 (permalink)
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    I think its gonna hook up to to the WNW and hit the islands.  
     

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    #9
    SolMan
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/04 18:32:44 (permalink)
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    bouldergal
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/05 19:09:06 (permalink)
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    What do you think Solman?  Will the Yucatan be affected by torrential rain and high winds?  Arriving tomorrow, Sept 6th, in Holbox.
    #11
    barleypopgirl
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/06 07:04:18 (permalink)
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    Irma is headed for the Keys and south Florida-----mandatory evacuation for visitors in the keys is expected to be announced today, and mandatory evacuation for residents of the keys is Thursday.   
     
    Lines are already long at some gas stations--and some stations are already out of gas.    I hope people are not being gouged at the pumps.
     

    headin' south again soon!
    #12
    redheadmommy
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/07 13:58:56 (permalink)
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    My view on weather has sure changed since our first trip here 5 years ago. I don't worry about it nearly as much as I used to! What will be will be. 
     
    That being said, there are three hurricanes in the Atlantic right now. I'm really hoping Mother Nature is getting them out of the way in preparation for our arrival in 20 days. 
     
    I have been through two hurricanes in Florida. It seems like the hotels (we stay at the GBP Sian Kaan every year) are pretty prepared but a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is a monster. 
     
    Solman, I will be keeping a close eye on your thoughts as these hurricanes pass through. Let's get these out of here and hope for some calmer weather. 
    #13
    Kay
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/08 09:24:08 (permalink)
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    Prayers and thoughts for all of those affected by Irma, and those in her path...  
     
    We've been there.... 

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    #14
    SolMan
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    Re: Hurricane Irma a potential problem for the Yucatan? 2017/09/10 07:24:43 (permalink)
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    Kay
    Prayers and thoughts for all of those affected by Irma, and those in her path...  
     
    We've been there.... 




    Absolutely. Irma is making landfall on the Florida Keys now.
     
    Live coverage here if you're interested in watching.


    #15
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