Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015

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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/10 00:08:47 (permalink)
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Sealex, meant to tell you earlier thanks for that on-site observation. Encourage anyone else to chime in with what you're seeing.  And thanks all for the kind words. As always, the pleasure is mine, but the on-site observations are what have always made these threads productive and interesting during hurricane season.
 
I'd like to encourage anyone who's there, whether on vacation or living there, to chime in with observations.  I'm particularly interested in snorkeling visibility in Akumal and Half Moon Bays. I'm putting together a correlation study to analyze how offshore winds and wave heights affect snorkeling visibility in reef-protected bays. The offshore wind and wave data I have, just need eyes in the water, if anyone's interested. 
 
To standardize the observations, let's say scale of 1-5, with 1 being the worst visibility and 5 being max visibility.  I'll bump your observations up against high-sea wind and waves to try to develop a dependable relationship over time that can be used to determine how offshore conditions are going to affect snorkeling in the reef flats.
 
Appreciate the consideration, and fingers crossed for a quiet season!
 
post edited by SolMan - 2015/06/10 00:13:00


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sealex
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/10 15:42:42 (permalink)
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Sunny all day yesterday. The wind really picked up about 3p until at least midnight. Clouds in the distance but any rain seems to go to the north or south. Reports of rain in Playa Del Carmen yesterday. We had sprinkles in HMB at around 7am this morning but only for about 5-10 min. Grey clouds in the distance, but we have had sun most of today. Waves continue. Visibility prob stinks but we have not been out last 2 days. Not as windy as yesterday, but that could change any minute.
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sealex
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/10 15:52:43 (permalink)
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5 min after I hit send on the above post the wind has picked up. Some rain too but mostly wind.
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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/10 16:24:32 (permalink)
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Thanks!  Yeah, the NHC Offshore Waters Forecast indicates 25-30 mph winds offshore through Monday, that translates to about 10-15 mph along the coast. Looks like it might relax a bit midweek next week.
 
Pretty sure those cruise ship passengers passing through the Yucatan Channel are loving the wind, lol.


#29
sealex
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/11 18:02:54 (permalink)
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We had about 2 hrs of rain last night with heavy winds and surf. High surf again today, cloudy in the morning with sun coming out around noon
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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/11 18:27:20 (permalink)
+1 (1)
Satellite imagery definitely indicates an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, intensifying along points south and west of PDC.  This should be the pattern for the next few days as diverging westerlies aloft interact with incoming tropical waves and strong easterlies from the mid-Atlantic ridge.
 
Surface windspeed will likely be on the increase as well, with sustained winds of up to 25mph possible on Sunday, settling back down to 10-12mph by mid-morning Monday and remaining there for the foreseeable future.
 
Regarding tropical storm development, El Nino certainly seems to be doing its job, as the entire Tropical Atlantic Basin is dead quiet. This is usually the time of year when we see massive disturbances coming off the western coast of Africa and quickly spinning up into tropical storms, but incredibly strong vertical wind shear has made the Atlantic a dead pool, with only the occasional tropical wave.  And that's good news. 
 
Just my humble opinion, but I will be very surprised if we make it to November with more than 5 named storms in the Atlantic.  Let's hope, at least.
post edited by SolMan - 2015/06/12 01:54:35


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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/13 07:38:05 (permalink)
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Messy weekend ahead. Elongated area of low pressure has deepened over the YP. System is drifting slowly northwest and should be into the Gulf by tomorrow evening. The National Hurricane Center has tagged this for tracking, as they believe it has a chance of developing into at least a tropical depression as it transits the Gulf of Mexico.
 

post edited by SolMan - 2015/06/13 07:44:51


#32
sealex
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/13 08:41:23 (permalink)
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Scattered periods of rain yesterday. High winds/surf continue. Rain started this morning with increasing rain and wind expected this afternoon/evening.
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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/13 13:56:50 (permalink)
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91L looking better organized this afternoon. Its convective coverage area has really exploded since yesterday evening. Should be in the Bay of Campeche by tomorrow evening.
 
For some reason, I'm unable to upload or even link pics. 
post edited by SolMan - 2015/06/13 14:42:29


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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/13 14:51:00 (permalink)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over northern Belize and the Yucatan
peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and
winds to near gale force over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions should support some development of this
system when it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
tomorrow night and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over
the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent


#35
Fred in Montreal
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 09:31:46 (permalink)
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Yesterday and this morning...absolutely miserable.

Playa Animal Rescue

http://playaanimalrescue.org


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sealex
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 10:36:05 (permalink)
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Yep, high winds and lots of rain. High surf and storm surge.
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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 11:36:05 (permalink)
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One heck of a soupy mess.  It should lift north into the Gulf later this evening.  Looks like Hurricane Hunters will be flying the area this afternoon.


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Fred in Montreal
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 11:39:00 (permalink)
+1 (1)
To give you an idea of how much rain...my pool was 5 inches from the top when it started and it has been overflowing since yesterday morning, with steady rain since then...has to be close to 10 inches so far.

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TeriA
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 12:17:55 (permalink)
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It's quite a mess this morning.

Attached Image(s)


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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/14 13:10:40 (permalink)
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According to the latest model runs, 91L will be paying me a visit this Wednesday.


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Fred in Montreal
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/16 07:12:07 (permalink)
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Clearing up nicely today, no rain yesterday. The winds were so bad on the weekend that the palapa for the attendant of the Akumal parking area for the restaurants (across from CEA) was completely destroyed. Paulino was sitting on a chair out in the open on the concrete platform, which was all that was left.

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#42
SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/16 12:04:02 (permalink)
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Looks like smooth sailing through the weekend.
 
It bears some watching, but the last few GFS model runs seem to be pointing to lowering pressures and the development of a tropical disturbance over the western Yucatan or Bay of Campeche early next week. Might bring some more rain that way, but still early.
 
Meanwhile, I'm prepping 29 DOD facilities for torrential rainfall when Bill moves through starting tomorrow evening.  Fun fun!


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palapaboy
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/16 16:26:20 (permalink)
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Wow, we are getting our share of it in Texas now.  Go figure.
 
Thanks for the reporting SolMan.  Even though we got back from paradise a month ago I like to keep up on what my friends down there are dealing with.  Obviously, a lot of others appreciate  your time on this too.  Thanks.

"I know one thing - indecision may, or may not, be my problem." Jimmy Buffett

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shape shifter 47
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/16 20:38:35 (permalink)
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Well the beast came on shore down your Sol.....going to loop around and come up on us...flood warnings are already out and the rain hasn't let up for some time now and now we have more coming in from the nice tropical storm Bill running right up our backs....thanks we really need it....LOL.....could be worse.....

gary "coolerman" & martha
Banking off of a northeast wind, sailing on a summer breeze
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Tomas
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/17 07:15:20 (permalink)
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shape shifter 47
Well the beast came on shore down your Sol.....going to loop around and come up on us...flood warnings are already out and the rain hasn't let up for some time now and now we have more coming in from the nice tropical storm Bill running right up our backs....thanks we really need it....LOL.....could be worse.....


Windy and rainy here in Fort Worth. Umbrella turned inside out twice on the walk into the plant from the parking lot.


"Turn up the heat,
chill the rose,
stretch out on the beach
and let those metatarsals play"
(Rev. J. Buffett)
#46
SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/17 08:51:49 (permalink)
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We've caught a few of the outer rain bands, but nothing like they're getting in Dallas/Fort worth.  Looks like it's going to pretty much follow the I-35 corridor. Lots of water headed your way, Gary.


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SolMan
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/17 20:08:42 (permalink)
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Next 6 days look picture perfect... high pressure taking over throughout the Gulf and the western Caribbean, light easterly trade winds averaging 8 mph, and the seasonal hit-and-run thundershower.
 
Models continue to suggest the possibility of lowering pressures and more active weather late next week, and since this has been a three-day trend in the model runs, it might mean they're sniffing something out, so I'll be watching that.


#48
Meg
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/17 20:43:50 (permalink)
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SolMan - we will be in Akumal for 10 days starting 6/29 and would be happy to report on the visibility daily for your correlation study. Really appreciate your reporting each year ! Thanks, Meg
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Re: Yucatan Coastal Weather - 2015 2015/06/17 21:13:32 (permalink)
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SolMan - we will be in Akumal for 10 days starting 6/29 and would be happy to report on the visibility daily for your correlation study. Really appreciate your reporting each year ! Thanks, Meg
#50
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