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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 12:18:08 PM
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shape shifter 47
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From: St. Louis Area..Northern Roo...
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Agree....don't see Ernesto getting weaker at this point and with the sea temps to feed off of....well it is anyones call at this point....I do think it will drop a little further south....your thoughts on this....
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gary "coolerman" & martha
Banking off of a northeast wind, sailing on a summer breeze
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 12:21:06 PM
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SolMan
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52 mph wind found in the last recon pass. So no weakening, and the dry air it has ingested doesn't seem to be affecting it much.
Might need to break out the popcorn.
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 12:33:18 PM
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shape shifter 47
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Was reading other reports.....give it 24 hrs....it did slow a little but that is about it.....rotation is pretty nice.....wish I could send some of our dry air down south......
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gary "coolerman" & martha
Banking off of a northeast wind, sailing on a summer breeze
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 12:41:28 PM
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SolMan
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Shifty, my thoughts at the moment are this... it hasn't really weakened, nor has it strengthened over the last 24 hours. Gaining intensity really wasn't expected anyway, since there's really nothing to fuel that yet, however, yesterday afternoon, Ernesto almost looked like it was about to degenerate into a tropical depression.
It's held together nicely, despite the shear and dry air. In fact, a look at the satellite shot in the visible spectrum will show you that Ernesto is in fact feeding off of moisture from the south, and creating his own envelope, so to speak.
This storm is not struggling by any means.
[EDIT] - Pressure's dropping, too.
< Message edited by SolMan -- 8/4/2012 12:47:05 PM >
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 1:13:36 PM
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SolMan
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This paragraph from the latest NHC discussion on Ernesto pretty much sums it up:
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES.
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 2:32:24 PM
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shape shifter 47
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Ernesto is really feeding moisture off the coast......I would think by tomorrow we will have a Cat 1 on our hands unless Ernesto breaks down but I don't see that happening......
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gary "coolerman" & martha
Banking off of a northeast wind, sailing on a summer breeze
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 2:44:15 PM
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SolMan
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Friend of mine (promet) is expecting it to go Cat 1 this afternoon or evening.
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:23:04 PM
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rucruizin
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Andy, you coming to Akumal in October?
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It becomes, what you make it.
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:27:05 PM
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shape shifter 47
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Could happen....
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gary "coolerman" & martha
Banking off of a northeast wind, sailing on a summer breeze
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:30:06 PM
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SolMan
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quote:
Andy, you coming to Akumal in October?
I'm shooting for it... I need a ticker!
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:34:10 PM
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rucruizin
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Good, hope to see you there this year. Snowbound, KRBNBob and I will all be there at the same time. Would be a blast to have you join us. Hopefully not post hurricane. Last one fizzled out, let's hope for that.
quote:
ORIGINAL: SolMan
quote:
Andy, you coming to Akumal in October?
I'm shooting for it... I need a ticker!
_____________________________
It is, what it is.
It becomes, what you make it.
Make it spectacular!
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:36:24 PM
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SolMan
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Sounds like fun! I'll let you know. And I'm hoping for a fizzle, too. Or a turn. Send it to Texas, we need the rain!
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:39:52 PM
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SolMan
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New advisory from the NHC... pressure continues to drop and wind speed continues to increase.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 3:54:45 PM
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SolMan
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Latest discussion:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 042031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER
CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND
NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO
1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.
AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO
FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...
INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING
IN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY
THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.2N 72.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 4:06:25 PM
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SolMan
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That track would be just south of Tulum.
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 4:45:33 PM
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DEMPY
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Crap!!
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 5:27:53 PM
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sandinmypants
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But still predicted to be Cat. 1?
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