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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread

 
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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 4:14:58 PM   
SolMan


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One of the things that has me wondering if it will strengthen much further or even survive as a tropical storm is the precence of dry air out ahead of Ernesto. When dry air gets pulled into a tropical system, it can kill it off.

Dry air is the beige area to the west of Ernesto in this water vapor image:



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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 4:31:38 PM   
SolMan


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Alrighty-then... recon's already there and gathering data. Let's see what they find...

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 4:34:40 PM   
reefhugger

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mjc9272

Hi, dumb question, I'm a newbie and bringing (hopefully...) my family to Cancun (supposed to leave on Thurs morning Aug 9th). If this thing turns into a Category 1, how impacted is the region, flooding, evacuations, etc....How long do they usually cancel flights for, meaning if it passes Cancun, and churns into the Gulf Coast, will airlines go "around" the storm (coming from Philly).

Thanks
No worries. I've been through TD, TS, cat 1 and outside edges of cat 2 in various places in the Caribbean. I've flown into a destination as a strengthening Cat 1 was arriving. Cat 1 doesn't necessarily close an airport. I know every storm is different, but honestly, my own personal experience with each of these was that it was a day, one time two days, of rain and wind, and on occasion, not even that much rain. The systems coming through do churn up the sea, and if you're a diver, it will mess with your plans and the viz for a day or two after. Cat 1 won't have you evacuating. Beachfront properties will put patio and beach furniture inside and they'll draw the hurricane shutters or some might board up, maybe, if they feel there wind will be strong enough in their specific location to warrant it.

Really, a lot of the US has had worse storms this spring and summer.

The other thing is that this far out it's not worth worrying. It's days still until Ernesto will be near the Yucatan. A lot can change. People down there don't even really start to think about doing anything, or whether they'll need to, until about 2 days out.

IF there is any system anywhere close to the Yucatan next Tues-Wed, check with your carrier and they'll tell you what the plan is as to whether or not Cancun will be suspending flights. I've personally never had that happen with a tropical depression, tropical storm or cat 1. But again, every system is different and also it's the airport's and airlines call as to when and what flights to cancel or delay.

Next Thursday is a long time to go still. Enjoy your weekend and don't spend too much time following this right now. It would be a very slim chance it would affect your vacation plans at all.
Post #: 53
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 4:47:19 PM   
Seagoat


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quote:

ORIGINAL: reefhugger


Next Thursday is a long time to go still. Enjoy your weekend and don't spend too much time following this right now. It would be a very slim chance it would affect your vacation plans at all.


Wasn't there a false alarm about this last year as well?  I recall a lot of people panicked and cancelled their vacations over a storm that never materialized.  Weather can change pretty fast.  I agree with Reef about not getting your knickers in a knot....at least not until you have to. 

Seagoat

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 4:58:41 PM   
SolMan


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Top winds observed so far in this recon pass 42 mph.

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:11:06 PM   
SolMan


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60mph winds now... so he's strengthened a bit.

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:21:53 PM   
reefhugger

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Seagoat

quote:

ORIGINAL: reefhugger


Next Thursday is a long time to go still. Enjoy your weekend and don't spend too much time following this right now. It would be a very slim chance it would affect your vacation plans at all.


Wasn't there a false alarm about this last year as well?  I recall a lot of people panicked and cancelled their vacations over a storm that never materialized.  Weather can change pretty fast.  I agree with Reef about not getting your knickers in a knot....at least not until you have to. 

Seagoat
EVERY year. Not just on LG, on just about every Caribbean travel forum.

Is a hurricane something to take lightly? No, but keep it in perspective, and keep in mind that just because your destination is in the cone, it doesn't mean you're doomed, especially not with a TD, TS or Cat 1. A Cat 1 is what, 75-95mph winds and rain? Might not even be that much rain, and the system blows threw usually over the course of a day. Also keep in mind most of the construction on the Q.Roo coast is concrete. Our stick built homes all over the US and Canada survive storms of this magnitude regularly. Just saying to keep it in perspective.
Post #: 57
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:27:42 PM   
CallMeFrank

 

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Target sure doesn't favor Akumal.  Hope ot decreases or atleast comes in as a Cat 1.  Hopefully it will pick up over the Caribbean and head up the Mississippi.  The whole south and midwest need rain badly.  All my luck it will do as I hope and it will rain the day we move our son back to college (Aug 14)

< Message edited by CallMeFrank -- 8/3/2012 5:28:34 PM >
Post #: 58
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:35:48 PM   
SolMan


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Yep Frank, but any potential landfall is 5 days away, and lots of scenarios are in play here - track shifts further south, or heck, even back to the north through the channel or over Cuba, if it ends up strengthening.

As one promet told me one time, anything beyond 2-3 days is a WAG .

NHC even noted in their last discussion above that the forecast is very questionable at this point.

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Post #: 59
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:45:12 PM   
ChicagoCraig


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WAG LOL use that term often.

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Post #: 60
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 5:45:47 PM   
SolMan


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A beer calls... back in a bit.

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 6:16:08 PM   
DEMPY


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Just talked to Delta and they issue you a ticket on the first flight after the airport opens. Nobody had an answer for me as to what they do if all flights are full. No Hotel. Not an issue though. Where I'm booked is available a few days before and after and the owner is a sweetheart and will change things for me. Sweetheart as in Whitney. The more I read the less worried I am. A week is a long way away.
quote:

ORIGINAL: DougSR


quote:

ORIGINAL: DEMPY

Check out this ticker. Supposed to land in Cancun at 10:15 am. I'm having visions of being stuck in Atlanta. Uck! This SUCKS!!!!

Curious. Are the airlines interested in moving you forward or back? Then redo the hotel.

Post #: 62
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 7:46:28 PM   
shape shifter 47


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SolMan

A beer calls... back in a bit.


Bring me one......

Have another system waiting in line behind Ernesto...a ways off.....seems the winds are favorable to pull systems off of the African coast....lets hope it breaks up....

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 8:12:40 PM   
murphytaters


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I'm with you on that shifter!
Post #: 64
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/3/2012 10:47:30 PM   
SolMan


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quote:

Have another system waiting in line behind Ernesto...a ways off.....seems the winds are favorable to pull systems off of the African coast....lets hope it breaks up....


Welcome to Cape Verde season, my friend.

It's the most wonderful time of the year! Except when you have travel plans in the tropics.

I hope you and all of us get some water out of it. Models are swallowing it up in the mid-Atlantic high pressure system, but you never know.

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Post #: 65
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 1:59:52 AM   
TeriA


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I really don't like the look of TD6 . It's already looking to be about the size of Ernesto.

Anywho, I just have a hunch that Ernesto is still on track to pass over Cuba and slip into the Gulf. Don't know why I think that, I just look at the models and the imagery and it feels like he'll track north and east rather than into the Yucatan.

I do love a good mystery.

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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 2:23:00 AM   
SolMan


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quote:

I do love a good mystery.


TeriA

Well, here ya go, lol,,, this would be one. I kind of think of it as "50 shades of Tropical Satellite Imagery".

Always fun, though.

< Message edited by SolMan -- 8/4/2012 2:25:10 AM >


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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 2:35:58 AM   
SolMan


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Nice convective pop. Let's hope he doesn't have too many of these, because they do add up where overall intensity is concerned,,,



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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 7:13:20 AM   
nipper


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Well there's florence to join the party.

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Post #: 69
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 9:43:15 AM   
shape shifter 47


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Maps are funny this am....looks like Ernesto is drifting to the south now....keep you fingers crossed.



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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 10:16:38 AM   
shape shifter 47


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lets try this again....great morning freaken phone died....and few other things....



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< Message edited by shape shifter 47 -- 8/4/2012 10:17:53 AM >


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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 10:19:12 AM   
SolMan


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A bit weaker... and the track farther south. If it stays weak, the track could go even farther south.



< Message edited by SolMan -- 8/4/2012 10:20:11 AM >


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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 10:37:05 AM   
shape shifter 47


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Ok Sol....looking at charts....maps and being almost crosseyed this a.m....my call it well below Akumal and Cancun.....I say around Belize...your thoughts on this.....we need to link our computers when the weather gets crazy...



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RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 10:39:01 AM   
shape shifter 47


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Ok Sol....looking at charts....maps and being almost crosseyed this a.m....my call it well below Akumal and Cancun.....I say around Belize...your thoughts on this.....we need to link our computers when the weather gets crazy...

quote:

ORIGINAL: SolMan

A bit weaker... and the track farther south. If it stays weak, the track could go even farther south.





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Post #: 74
RE: Tropical Storm Ernesto Update Thread - 8/4/2012 10:46:11 AM   
SolMan


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Shifty, I've been thinking since yesterday that if this stays weak, it'll bury itself in Belize. This morning's recon has found nothing significant. The only game-changer would be strengthening as it passes Jamaica, which is a distinct possibility, given the sea-surface temps in the western Caribbean. Plenty of fuel.

Satellite imagery shows a very healthy storm, so I don't think it's going to fall apart anytime soon.



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